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Foreign exchange traders losing confidence in dollar

May 08,2017
Currency traders are getting no joy from one of the market’s most crowded trades.

Dollar bulls have reason to be gloomy after the greenback ended last week little changed against a basket of peers following a three-week decline. The U.S. currency struggled to lure buyers after a mixed jobs report and a Federal Reserve meeting in which officials signaled no change to their interest-rate policy outlook.

And with centrist Emmanuel Macron leading in the polls heading into the final round of France’s presidential election Sunday, market participants have become more optimistic about the euro’s prospects. In the options market, the likelihood of the dollar rising against the euro this year has tumbled from a month ago.

“The dollar is at a tipping point,” said Ulf Lindahl, chief executive officer of A.G. Bisset Associates, who manages about $1 billion from Norwalk, Connecticut. The greenback “is likely poised to drop sharply in the months ahead” as U.S. economic data soften, he said.

Inflation and retail sales will be among the indicators to watch this week, as well as speakers including the New York Fed’s William Dudley. April’s consumer-price report may show inflation cooled from a year earlier, echoing last week’s reading on average hourly earnings. Bloomberg